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As we look forward to a new year, I am pleased to share my thoughts on the very memorable 12 months past, and to offer my outlook for the commercial real estate market in 2012. Before I do, I would be remiss if I did not thank the Sperry Van Ness clients, Advisors, staff, and fellow brokers for their contributions in driving us forward in spite of the unpredictable times. I know that I speak for all SVN Advisors and staff when I wish you a prosperous New Year.

A Year of Fits and Starts for Commercial Real Estate

My new iPhone 4s arrived finally arrived this past weekend. My oldest son and I opened the package with much anticipation and we immediately dropped what we were doing to configure the device. Among the many new features made part of the 4s is Siri – the speech recognition device which, as Apple advertises, “Understands what you say, knows what you mean, and takes dictation.” So, gone are the days when I have to manually type a query into Google to search for a nearby Sushi restaurant, find directions, or, get this – type to text or email. From now on, all I have to do is talk. So, over the weekend I dictated and had Siri read aloud roughly 100 text messages sent and received. I quickly grew so accustomed to iPhone dictation that I became annoyed when I had to manually type an email on my Mac later that evening. On one hand, I felt more efficient, on the other hand I questioned if I was simply becoming lazy…

With less than 100 days remaining in 2011, I want to pose the following question: “What will YOU do differently in 2012?” You cannot simply repeat your 2011 performance in 2012 and expect the outcome to be any different. My message is a rather simple, yet important one – the market doesn’t matter, but YOUR actions do! Accepting the norm accomplishes little more than sentencing yourself to mediocrity, while radicalizing the norm creates opportunity even when markets don’t seem to be sympathetic to your cause.

The impact and the power associated with mobilizing people for a purpose are rooted in fundamental economics – they are nothing new. From electing a government official, to spreading word of and organizing an “Aquarian exhibition” of 500,000 people at Woodstock in 1969, ideating among a critical mass of people, sharing and sourcing information while leveraging the power of numbers and virality have always been present in society. Aligned crowds, we call them “smart mobs” today, are driving virtually every major trend in the global economy.

What’s new, and ever evolving, is the technology which is enabling crowds to be catalyzed, assimilated, and leveraged like never before. If we examine only the past five years, we see how rapidly the speed and power of group collaboration has increased to create value to stakeholders in ways that were previously thought unimaginable. “Technology enabled collaboration,” as its been dubbed, is in full force and effect in almost every industry on the planet. From Restaurants to Travel, and from Yelp to Orbitz, people and businesses are organizing, collaborating, sharing and peering for the purposes of lowering costs, improving quality, saving time, and even curing disease.


How do you feel when you get something for free? Does the hair stand up on the back of your neck as if you’re being set-up for a bait-and-switch, or do you feel like you’ve received something of value at no cost for which you’re appreciative? If you’re anything like me, I’ve experienced both of the aforementioned scenarios. In my opinion there is definitely a right and a wrong approach to “Free.” In today’s post I’ll examine “Freemium” offers and how they might play a part in redefining the commercial real estate industry.

Recent events in the market, including the drawn out debate over the budget ceiling, Friday’s downgrade of the US credit rating and today’s downgrade of Freddie & Fannie by Standard & Poor’s, coincide with new data that show the broader economic recovery has slowed in recent months. Bet I’m not telling you anything that you didn’t already know.

These developments, alongside heightened volatility in stock markets, have obviously prompted concerns about the resilience of the commercial real estate recovery. In assessing what all of this means for the investment outlook, our clients are looking to us for leadership and a more balanced, long-term assessment of the future. Along those lines, and while I could certainly fill this post with a summary of the downside risks stemming from recent events which have recently imbued the blogosphere, the following is a different but pragmatic take on the road ahead – the market is currently sensitive to the downside risks, but it is also prone at this juncture to discount positive information. There is some good news, which stands apart from the cacophony of recently sounded panic alarms.

For many years, we at SVN have issued our annual Top Markets to Watch report.  Segmented by product type, the report seeks not to dissuade investors from targeting markets omitted from the report, but rather to highlight those markets which we believe to be positively influenced by emerging trends.  Included in the third issue of our The Advisor magazine, it is our hope that you extract actionable insights from the report’s rich content, regardless of your position in the industry. A brief synopsis is as follows:

Today’s post won’t be long, but I think perhaps brevity is well suited for the message. It was Shakespeare who said “brevity is the wit of soul.” – I tend to concur. While today’s message is specifically directed at our Advisors, I hope others that read it will take away positive, actionable insights as well.

As a storied 2010 comes to a close, I thought it a good time to offer my observations on the 12 months past, and to present my outlook for the economy and the commercial real estate market for the year ahead. Before I do, however, I would be remiss if I did not thank the Sperry Van Ness clients, Advisors, staff, and fellow brokers for their contributions to our strong year. I know that I speak for all SVN Advisors and staff when I wish you a safe holiday season and a prosperous New Year.

A Strong Close to 2010

Following two years of unprecedented upheaval, commercial real estate market conditions have improved markedly over the course of 2010. In the final days of December, Real Capital Analytics reports that the rush to bring deals to closing has pushed national transaction volume for the year past the $100 billion milestone, roughly doubling the market’s tally for 2009. This improvement in property sales reflects investor confidence in the long-term prospects for our industry as well as improvements, though sometimes modest, in supporting measures of economic and job market activity.

My question today is a simple one: What’s your vision for the future and what are you doing about it? Much has been written about surviving the downturn – what to do now, the “new normal” and other tips for how to navigate current market conditions. And while I certainly have no gripes about being in the moment from a tactical perspective, I’m concerned that as an industry we don’t lose sight of the value of looking forward. In today’s post I’ll share my thoughts on the importance of looking forward.